Sunk by a wave: David Miliband writes why Russian election could be end of Putin

The Sun

DAVID Miliband first met Vladimir Putin in February 2000 in Russia.

“He was the newly anointed successor to Boris Yeltsin — and the British government delegation was among the first to meet him.

I remember three things from that meeting.

That Mr Putin sat very still, his piercing eyes scrutinising his visitors.

That he gave nothing away. And that he thought the best way to mark the visit was to take us to see a blood-and-guts production of the Russian epic War and Peace.

There were dead bodies all over the stage. And Russia wins every time.

Twelve years on, Putin has served the constitutional limit of eight consecutive years as President, and four years as Prime Minister.

But his script for continued power has been torn up by a wave of popular revolt at his casual announcement in September last year that “he had agreed” to swap jobs with President Dmitry Medvedev.

So today, there is something that would have seemed inconceivable six months ago — a Russian election where people feel their votes actually matter.

No one believes Putin will be defeated — not least because serious alternatives have been kept out of the race. But plenty of Russians think it is worth voting against him.

Experts say Putin loves to compare himself to Peter the Great — who ruled for over 40 years. His anti-hero is Mikhail Gorbachev, who presided over the break-up of the Soviet Union — what Putin has described as “the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century”.

Yet his rule has ended up being compared to that of Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev — a man stuck in the past while the world changes around him.

Russian nationalists, communists and liberals who have taken to the streets in their tens of thousands, in temperatures well below freezing, don’t agree about much.

But they are united against corruption, stagnation and arbitrary rule.

It is wrong to underestimate Putin. He is intelligent, worldly and ruthless.

In the first term of his presidency, in the wake of the embarrassing latter years of Boris Yeltsin, the rhetoric and to some extent reality was about reform as well as order.

Russians got their pride back — floating on a tide of oil and gas revenues. But since then Russian reform has gone into reverse, and vested interests consolidated their positions. So Putin the reactionary has come to the fore.

The economy is too dependent on oil and gas. The rule of law has fallen into disrepute. Foreign investors are afraid of getting their hands caught in the mangle.

And political and economic opponents, real and potential, and the journalists who have tried to cover their cases, have died in mysterious circumstances in Russia and abroad.

This matters to us. Russia is Europe’s neighbour and a major supplier of oil and gas to the Continent.

She sits with the UK on the UN Security Council. And we need Russia’s help on big foreign policy issues — preventing Iran becoming a nuclear weapons state, stopping further slaughter in Syria, stabilising Afghanistan.

Some say we should shut up about Russia’s domestic abuses, and just focus on making alliances on foreign policy. But that isn’t just hypocritical. It won’t work.

Russia hates its own weakness and does not respect weakness from others.

We do not need our Government to be macho. We need clarity, consistency and firmness.

It is not anti-Russian to demand justice for British citizen Alexander Litvinenko, killed on British soil.

Nor is it anti-Russian to say those responsible for the death of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, who exposed tax fraud in Russia, should be held to account.

A Russia that is open and democratic at home won’t just be richer and more stable. It is more likely to be our partner abroad. And we should listen to her — because she has genuine insights.

In some ways I fear a weak and declining Russia more than I fear a strong and confident one. I would like to see Russia diversify its economy.

I want Russia to reverse the disastrous slide in its average life expectancy — now down to near 60 for men.

And I would like to see its remarkable people escape their tragic history at the hands of one dictatorship after another, and to do so peacefully.

Whoever wins the election today, one thing is clear: Russia will not be the same. The people of Russia have spoken up, and a wise leader would listen.

I will wager one prediction. Whether or not Vladimir Putin wins today, he will not be celebrating a fourth term in office six years from now.”
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