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ECFR Report: Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia

European Council on Foreign Relations

The European Council on Foreign Relations has released its latest report, ‘Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia’ by ECFR Policy Fellows Ben Judah, Jana Kobzova and Nicu Popescu.

The overall outcome of parliamentary elections on December 4th – with only tame parties standing in opposition to Putin – is not in doubt, but the specific results may signal that the Putin system is losing its legitimacy, just as he readies himself to retake the presidency (possibly until 2024). But Putin would not be returning to the same Russia as when he last held the presidency: buffeted by economic turbulence and fearful of stagnation, Russia is now post-BRIC. It no longer believes it shares the same power-trajectory as Brazil, India and China; instead, it thinks it is in relative decline with the West.

‘Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia’ looks at the domestic and foreign policy constraints on a post-BRIC Russia that will shape Putin’s next presidency. It analyses how Europe should rethink its relationship with Moscow. The authors argue that:

The economic crisis has exposed a governance crisis inside Russia: even Putin now admits that as much as 80% of Kremlin orders have been ignored in the regions. Instead of modernising, Russia in 2010 was as corrupt as Papua New Guinea, had the property rights of Kenya and was as competitive as Sri Lanka.