Posts Tagged ‘putin’

16
May 2012

Putin Snubs G-8 to Punish Obama for Criticism, Official Says

San Francisco Chronicle

President Vladimir Putin is showing U.S. President Barack Obama his displeasure over the criticism of Russian elections and the lack of progress on a planned missile shield by skipping the Group of Eight summit for the first time as president, said Alexei Pushkov, a senior lawmaker.

The U.S. has “nothing to propose” to Putin at this week’s meeting, while “strong handshakes and smiles” are probably not a priority for him as Russia forms a new government, Pushkov, the head of the foreign-affairs committee in the lower house of parliament, said in a telephone interview yesterday.

Russia’s relations with the U.S. are showing strains as Putin begins his third term as president. The two countries have locked horns over missile defense, the future of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Putin has accused foreign powers of financing the biggest anti-government protests in a decade to destabilize Russia, saying that U.S. criticism of a December parliamentary election emboldened the opposition.

“Why does the U.S. think it can be sure the Russian president will pay a visit?” Pushkov said. “The American side thinks it can call the parliamentary election illegitimate, send its ambassador to meet with the radical opposition that shouts ‘Russia without Putin,’ doubt the presidential election and criticize Russian authorities for half a year.”

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15
May 2012

After WTO Membership: Promoting Human Rights in Russia with the Magnitsky Act

Heritage Foundation

Abstract: Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will put U.S. companies at a disadvantage with their global competitors unless Congress first exempts Russia from the application of the Jackson–Vanik Amendment, a tool from the 1970s designed to promote human rights that no longer advances that goal. Russia admittedly suffers from weak rule of law and pervasive corruption, but Congress should pass new human rights legislation rather than try to uphold Jackson–Vanik beyond its utility. Then, Congress should grant Russia permanent normal trade relations status, which will promote transparency, property rights, and the rule of law in addition to the expected economic benefits for U.S. companies.

In a few months, Russia will become a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). U.S. businesses will not be able to benefit from the concessions Russia made to join the WTO unless Congress first repeals the Jackson–Vanik Amendment, a powerful tool that the U.S. successfully used to promote human rights in Soviet Russia and other countries which restricted emigration during the Cold War. Failure to repeal Jackson–Vanik could place U.S. companies at a disadvantage while companies in other WTO members benefit from significantly increased access to the Russian economy.

Regrettably, the Obama Administration did not work with Congress to resolve these issues before agreeing to Russia’s accession to the WTO. Because accession of a new member requires the unanimous assent of WTO members, the Administration could easily have delayed Russian accession. Now, Russian accession will put U.S. businesses at a disadvantage in Russia until Congress repeals Jackson–Vanik.

To avoid such a scenario, Congress should extend permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) to Russia and press for trade reforms that are in the best interests of the United States while supporting the cause of human rights in Russia and around the world. The Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act (S. 1039 and H.R. 4405) would accommodate Russian membership in the WTO, while signaling the long-term American commitment to the rule of law and human rights in Russia and other countries.[1]

A Human Rights Tool Designed for a Different Time

During the Cold War, the Jackson–Vanik Amendment was an important tool for promoting human rights in the Soviet Union and beyond. Attached to the U.S. Trade Act of 1974, the amendment restricts trade with nonmarket economies that limit freedom of emigration and other human rights. It was the U.S. response to Soviet “diploma taxes” on Jews attempting to emigrate from the communist state.

Congress has since granted permanent normal trade status to 10 countries that were targeted by the Jackson–Vanik Amendment[2] (see Table 1), but not Russia. Russia remains on the dwindling list of countries subject to the Jackson–Vanik Amendment even though it is no longer relevant in the 21st century.

In post-Soviet Russia, the circumstances that prompted the Jackson–Vanik Amendment no longer apply. The U.S. government officially lifted Russia’s status as a nonmarket economy on April 1, 2002. The United States has also granted Russia “normal” trade relations under an annual waiver of Jackson–Vanik provisions every year since 1992. Today, Russia, although authoritarian and corrupt, allows free emigration and has thriving Jewish communities. Russian Chief Rabbi Berl Lazar even asked President George W. Bush to repeal the amendment.[3]

Any human rights violations not part of the legislative intent of Jackson–Vanik at the time of its adoption can and should be addressed in other, more effective ways. As Jackson-Vanik covered not just Russia, so should its successor legislation. Furthermore, Congress has more effective ways of addressing legitimate concerns about Russian business and economic practices, such as Russian state-affiliated officials and business entities that are exporting corruption.

Corruption and Human Rights Violations in Russia

In Russia, human and property rights violations are undermining the state and preventing investment and business development. Weak rule of law and pervasive corruption, including the failing court system and law enforcement, are at the heart of persistent rights violations. Western and domestic investors and Russian citizens face these challenges every day. President Vladimir Putin, former president Dmitry Medvedev, and other Russian leaders have bitterly complained about the state of affairs, but have done little to improve things.

Russia’s economic prosperity under Vladimir Putin helped Russia reemerge as a major player on the world stage. Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased from approximately $250 billion after the 1998 crisis to $1.8 trillion 10 years later, before the world financial crisis. Increased oil and natural gas exports—Russia has the seventh largest oil reserves and the largest gas reserves in the world and is the leading exporter of oil and gas—coupled with the higher prices for other Russian commodity exports, have largely driven this economic comeback. Russia uses the revenue from energy exports combined with revenue from arms sales, metals exports, and foreign investments, including in the mining and energy sectors, to extend Russian influence worldwide.[4]

The Kremlin has also used energy exports to Europe as a foreign policy tool, most notoriously through threats to disrupt oil and gas exports to countries that oppose Russia’s perceived national interests. Russia has also acquired or is acquiring energy companies and infrastructure, including pipelines, refineries, and other assets in more than a dozen other European countries. This economic expansion is rife with corruption and influence peddling.[5] Russia’s geo-economic ambitions cover the entire former Soviet area and have negative implications for the security of Europe’s energy supply.[6] Moscow’s ambition and newfound wealth have spread its corrupt domestic business practices to the international community.

Pull Quote: The Kremlin has also used energy exports to Europe as a foreign policy tool, most notoriously through threats to disrupt oil and gas exports to countries that oppose Russia’s perceived national interests.

This wave of corruption should make gathering actionable intelligence on questionable Russian activities and punishing the culprits a priority for the U.S. and its allies.

The Magnitsky Case. The death of Sergei Magnitsky has come to symbolize the systemic and often violent corruption pervading the Russian state. Magnitsky died in jail awaiting trial on fabricated charges of tax evasion and tax fraud. He was jailed after he accused Russian officials of a sophisticated swindle to obtain a $230 million tax rebate from the Russian treasury.

The Magnitsky story began with the expulsion of U.S.-born investor William Browder from Russia in 2005. Browder, a British citizen, was co-founder of Hermitage Capital, once the largest hedge fund in Russia. Hermitage had leaked evidence of corruption in the Russian government to the press on several occasions. Browder was subsequently expelled under the pretense that he posed a threat to national security, although the Russian government has not disclosed any details. Police raided the Moscow office of Hermitage Capital on June 4, 2007.

In the course of his work, Sergei Magnitsky, a 37-year-old Firestone Duncan attorney representing Hermitage Capital, uncovered a giant scheme involving the embezzlement of $230 million from the Russian treasury by law enforcement and tax officials. Magnitsky was conveniently detained in 2008 and died in isolation at a Russian prison in November 2009.

An investigation ordered by then-President Dmitry Medvedev and the Russian Presidential Council on Human Rights determined that Magnitsky died after he was denied medical care and beaten by the guards. However, those involved have not been punished, but have remained in power, and some have even been decorated or promoted. In April 2012, Russian state prosecutors dropped charges against the chief doctor at the prison after the statute of limitations expired. The physician had been accused of negligence in Magnitsky’s death.[7] Other officials implicated in Magnitsky’s death have not been punished to date.
In late July 2011, the U.S. Department of State placed 64 Russian officials involved in Magnitsky’s death on a visa blacklist, prompting protests from the Russian government. Blacklisting the officials may have been an attempt by the Obama Administration to preempt and undermine support for the Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2011.[8]

The Khodorkovsky Case. In 2004, Mikhail Khodorkovsky was Russia’s wealthiest man and the chairman and chief executive officer of the Yukos Oil Company. In 2003, he was arrested on charges of tax fraud, and in 2005, he was sentenced to nine years in prison, which was later reduced to eight. In a second show trial in December 2010, he was sentenced to 14 years in prison to run concurrent with his first sentence. After Khodorkovsky’s conviction, the Russian government auctioned off Yukos Oil at a sharply discounted price to Rosneft, Russia’s state-run oil company in 2006, effectively expropriating without compensation the investments of Yukos shareholders, including many American small investors and mutual funds.

In reality, Khodorkovsky ran afoul of the Putin administration because of his calls to curb corruption and because some Putin associates coveted parts of this lucrative company. The repeated political and financial prosecutions of Russia’s wealthiest man, his partners, and his shareholders have lacked any substantial legal basis. The show trial served to intimidate and control other oligarchs that might consider disobeying the Kremlin.[9] Amnesty International has recognized Khodorkovsky as a political prisoner.

Fighting Russian Corruption. Intelligence is critical in gathering the evidence necessary to secure convictions in courts of law. Such intelligence includes, for instance, Russian banks providing credit card support for child pornography websites. The U.S. should lead in expanding international cooperation among law enforcement agencies to prevent and stop complex transnational crimes, such as money laundering and other crimes involving current or former Russian government officials, oligarchs with close ties to Russian political leaders, intelligence operatives, and persons with ties to organized crime. When Russian entities violate the law,[10] the U.S. and its allies should aggressively prosecute the offenders, confiscate illegally laundered funds and properties acquired with illegally procured funds, and deny visas to government and business figures who are involved in illicit activities.[11]

The Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act

The Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act, introduced by Senators Ben Cardin (D–MD) and John McCain (R–AZ) in the Senate and Representatives Ed Royce (R–CA), Chris Smith (R–NJ), and Jim McGovern (D–MA) in the House of Representatives, would “impose sanctions on persons responsible for the detention, abuse, or death of Sergei Magnitsky, for the conspiracy to defraud the Russian Federation of taxes on corporate profits through fraudulent transactions and lawsuits against Hermitage, and for other gross violations of human rights in the Russian Federation.”[12]

While named after Magnitsky, the bill would target human rights abusers around the globe by denying U.S. visas to individuals guilty of massive human rights violations and freezing all of their assets within the purview of the U.S. government. The legislation could also apply to the case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, whose Yukos Oil Company was expropriated by the state for trumped-up tax violations and its assets sold to the Rosneft national oil company.

The Magnitsky bill has prominent supporters, including David J. Kramer, president of Freedom House and former Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights in the George W. Bush Administration. He testified that the Magnitsky bill, even before passage, has already “done more for the cause of human rights [in Russia] than anything done by the Obama Administration…or by the Bush Administration.”[13] Seven leaders of Russia’s pro-democracy movement have also called for the U.S. to replace Jackson–Vanik with the Magnitsky bill:

We, leading figures of the Russian political opposition, strongly stand behind efforts to remove Russia from the provisions of the Jackson–Vanik Amendment. Jackson–Vanik is not helpful in any way—neither for promotion of human rights and democracy in Russia, nor for the economic interests of its people.… [M]uch more effective are targeted sanctions against specific officials involved in human rights abuse, like those named in the Senator Benjamin Cardin’s list in the Sergey Magnitsky case.[14]

Russia has threatened to retaliate “asymmetrically” if Congress passes the bill. It has already banned entry to U.S. officials prosecuting Viktor Bout, an arms trader known as the “Lord of War.”[15] However, such retaliation would need to pass the straight face test both at home and abroad. Protection of international criminals like Bout would be met with jeers.

Russian WTO Membership

Later this year, Russia will finally join the World Trade Organization (WTO). This is a positive development for Russia, which is the largest nation that is not a member of the WTO. It has the world’s sixth largest economy, but ranks only 23rd on the list of U.S. trade partners,[16] placing it just below Thailand and Nigeria. Russia is also the only member of the G-20 group outside the World Trade Organization. Of the 50 largest economies of the world, the Islamic Republic of Iran is the only other country that is not a member.[17] According to WTO reports, about 95 percent of world trade takes place between members. After Russia joins the WTO, that percentage will jump to 97 percent.[18] As noted in a 2006 Congressional Research Service report, “Russia’s motivation for and progress toward accession to the WTO are directly related to efforts to dismantle the Soviet economic system of central planning and replace it with a more market-based economy.”[19]

Russia officially began working on its WTO accession package on June 16, 1993, but progress has been difficult. For example, in 2009, President Putin announced that Russia was no longer interested in individual WTO membership, suggesting instead that the customs union of Belarus, Russia, and Kazakhstan should be accepted together. This approach, later abandoned, delayed the country’s membership until 2011.[20]

In October 2011, Speaker of the House John Boehner (R–OH) suggested that the U.S. should take into account the dispute over Georgia’s border with Russia: “The Administration should resolve this stalemate in a manner that respects the territorial integrity of Georgia. Then—and only then—will movement on the WTO question be worth considering.”[21] This final stumbling block was removed on November 9, 2011, as Georgia and Russia reached an agreement allowing Russia’s WTO bid to move forward.[22]

On November 10, 2011, the WTO’s Working Party finally adopted Russia’s accession package. At the ministerial conference on December 16, 2011, the trade ministers of the WTO members approved Russia’s bid to join the World Trade Organization. Russia has 220 days after the approval to ratify accession, and it will become a member 30 days after ratification.[23]

Upon ratification by the Russian Duma, the United States and other WTO members will benefit from improved access to Russia’s market, while Russia will benefit from economic liberalization. The Index of Economic Freedom, published by The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal, shows that countries with low trade barriers have the strongest economies.[24] In the long term, Russia also stands to gain significantly from foreign investment and exposure of corrupt business practices. According to one study, WTO membership could increase Russia’s GDP by up to 11 percent.”[25]

The Risk to U.S. Businesses

WTO membership is granted on a consensus basis, meaning that WTO members must unanimously agree to grant membership to a new country. Ideally, the Obama Administration should have worked with Congress to address human rights issues and the Jackson–Vanik question before agreeing to Russia’s membership. Regrettably, the Administration agreed to Russia’s WTO membership without first getting congressional buy-in. Unless the United States extends PNTR status to Russia, U.S. businesses will not benefit from the concessions Russia made to join the WTO. In that case, companies in every other WTO member would have an advantage over U.S. firms. The 1992 Bilateral Commercial Agreement would continue to apply, but companies in other countries could gain benefits not available to U.S. firms, such as in services exports, intellectual property protection, and dispute resolution.[26]

Currently, the U.S. grants Russia annual waivers to Jackson–Vanik to maintain “normal” trade relations. However, when Russia joins the WTO, the practice of granting annual waivers in lieu of granting permanent normal trade relations, as the U.S. has granted to all other WTO members, would negate the ability of U.S. firms to benefit from the concessions Russia made in order to join the WTO. U.S. businesses engaged in commerce with Russia could be put at a disadvantage compared with companies in other WTO member countries.

The Obama Administration would like to extend permanent normal trade relations to Russia. Granting PNTR combined with implementation of new, targeted human rights measures would benefit both Russia and the United States.[27] Replacing Jackson–Vanik with the Magnitsky Act and granting PNTR to Russia could double U.S. exports to Russia over the next five years according to an estimate from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.[28] However, the Obama Administration views the Magnitsky bill and other human rights legislation as threats to the Administration’s “reset” policy toward Russia.
Pull Quote: Granting PNTR to Russia could double U.S. exports to Russia over the next five years according to an estimate from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

What the United States Should Do

The U.S. can improve trade relations with Russia while still promoting human rights and the rule of law in Russia and in other countries. Specifically, the U.S. should:
Adopt new measures to protect human rights in Russia and elsewhere. Targeted legislation like the Senate version of the proposed Magnitsky Act would more effectively encourage Russia, and other countries which systematically abuse human rights, to respect the rights of their citizens.

Cooperate with Western banking regulators, intelligence services, and law enforcement agencies to track human rights abusers, as well as Russian state and oligarch money laundering activities, corruption, and unfair competition practices. The Obama Administration should prioritize gathering and acting on intelligence on questionable Russian activities. The U.S. should lead an international effort among law enforcement agencies to prevent and stop complex transnational crimes.[29]

Replace Jackson–Vanik with the Magnitsky Act. This would provide a working system to pinpoint and punish gross violators of human rights, while allowing U.S. firms to compete equally for business in Russia and elsewhere. Extending PNTR to Russia would also promote transparency, property rights, and the rule of law.

Target blatant and systematic abusers of human rights who spend their time or keep their financial resources in the West. The U.S. should coordinate its efforts with its allies in Europe and around the world who are promoting similar pieces of legislation. International cooperation can go a long way in deterring gross violations of individual rights, including property rights, and in promoting the values of the U.S. and its allies in the 21st century.

Conclusion

Russia’s membership in the WTO is a historic event that will greatly benefit Russia and the entire world economy. However, this is not the only U.S. foreign policy concern. America should not ignore the weak rule of law in Russia or its connection to violations of individual rights and human rights and the spread of corruption and organized crime. Congress should take action against those tyrants that systematically violate the natural rights of people, not just in Russia, but around the globe.

The Senate version of the Magnitsky Act or similar legislation would not only empower the U.S. government to take action against such individuals, but also send a clear message that the United States will support the rule of law and freedom in other countries. By placing human rights front and center and then addressing the PNTR issue before Russia joins the WTO, Congress and President Obama can both protect U.S. interests in the global marketplace and maintain America’s stature as a nation that believes in and actively defends human rights.

—Ariel Cohen, PhD, is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Bryan Riley is Jay Van Andel Senior Analyst in Trade Policy in the Center for International Trade and Economics at The Heritage Foundation. Anton Altman, an intern in the Davis Center, contributed valuable research in the production of this paper. срочный займ на карту онлайн payday loan https://zp-pdl.com/how-to-get-fast-payday-loan-online.php https://www.zp-pdl.com payday loan

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14
May 2012

‘Obama has sided with Putin Against Congress’

National Review Online

How can Medvedev transmit that Obama will be “more flexible” after the election when the president is already doing Vladimir Putin’s bidding with Congress? Washington Post columnist Jackson Diehl on the “Magnitsky bill” — a piece of legislation, authored by Democrats, that aims to restore human rights to the center of U.S.-Russian relations.

This sanction strikes at the heart of the web of corruption around Putin. Moscow’s bureaucratic mafiosi rely heavily on foreign bank accounts; they vacation in France, send their children to U.S. colleges and take refuge in London when they fall from Putin’s favor. The fear and loathing provoked in Moscow by the bill is encapsulated by item No. 3 on Putin’s new priority list: “Work actively on preventing unilateral extraterritorial sanctions by the U.S. against Russian legal entities and individuals.”

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14
May 2012

Obama’s misguided wooing of an uninterested Putin

Washington Post

Putin’s response was to claim that he needed to skip Camp David in order to put together a new government cabinet — even though he is now the president, not the prime minister. Some Russian analysts dismissed that explanation; they posited that Putin was offended by the State Department’s mild criticism of the beatings of demonstrators during his inauguration last week. Others speculated that he was managing serious behind-the-scenes power struggles.

Either way, Putin appears lukewarm at best about the main cause of Obama’s focus on him: his ambition to conclude a groundbreaking nuclear weapons accord in 2013. The deal would go well beyond the New START treaty of 2010 and aim at a radical, long-term reduction of the U.S. and Russian arsenals. It would be Obama’s legacy achievement on the foreign-policy issue that most engages him, and the retroactive justification for his Nobel Peace Prize.

Putin, however, doesn’t seem terribly interested. A seven-point directive on relations with the United States he issued last week listed “further reduction of strategic offensive arms” sixth, and said they “are possible only within the context of taking into account any and all factors influencing global strategic stability.” That means missile defense: Point seven reiterates Moscow’s demand for “firm guarantees” about U.S. anti-ballistic missile systems.

Obama’s fixation on a nuclear deal has prompted a major turnaround in his treatment of Putin, whom he shunned for three years in the hope of promoting the supposedly more “reformist” Dmitry Medvedev. Though he might have waited several days to call, Obama nevertheless congratulated Putin on an election that international observers said was neither free nor fair. He has made repeal of the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment, which limits U.S. trade with Russia, a priority in Congress this spring.

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11
May 2012

As Putin Postpones Meeting Obama, Analysts Seek Political Import

New York Times

The first meeting between President Obama and President Vladimir V. Putin as the leaders of their respective countries was supposed to be an icebreaker, a moment for two outsize figures to put behind them some of the friction that surrounded the Russian elections two months ago.

But the announcement on Wednesday that Mr. Putin would skip the Group of 8 summit meeting of world leaders next week at Camp David – which Mr. Obama had promoted as an opportunity to “spend time” with Mr. Putin – bewildered foreign policy experts in both countries who have been waiting to see how the two leaders would get on.

During a telephone call on Thursday, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, assured Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton that the cancellation was “not political,” a State Department official said. Other administration officials said they accepted Mr. Putin’s stated reason for canceling his trip – he told Mr. Obama that he had to finish setting up his new cabinet.

In fact, during a meeting last Friday in Moscow with Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, Thomas E. Donilon, which was supposed to set up the Camp David meeting, Mr. Putin had warned that he might have to send his prime minister (and the former president), Dmitri A. Medvedev, in his place, according to a senior administration official with knowledge of the meeting.

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10
May 2012

An agenda for Putin’s first 100 Days

Public Service Europe

A comprehensive human rights agenda for Russia should be adopted this summer and then carried through to prove Putin is serious, says human rights group

Four years ago – when Dmitry Medvedev was taking over as the president of Russia – an international correspondent asked me for one word to describe Vladimir Putin’s 2000-2008 presidency. I came up with three, “so-called stability”. Despite all the patriotic rhetoric lately, not many in Russia expect that Putin’s new term will bring another six years of “stability”. No one wants turbulence, of course, but unresolved political, social and human rights issues are growing increasingly visible and pressing. Adopting a 100-day agenda focused on these unresolved issues would be a good start.

The Russian election cycle never fails to surprise. News about the president and prime minister’s plans to swap seats in 2012 led to a major political awakening in the country. The biggest crowds since the 1990s showed up on the streets of Moscow and other large Russian cities. Now the “swapping scenario” is close to its end. Yet, in a sign that Russia’s restive mood continues, another opposition protest in Moscow – with estimates of up to 60,000 participants – took place on May 6. The protest was marred by violence from some of the protesters and an excessive and indiscriminate use of police force in response. According to the Interfax new service, 436 people were detained; while other independent sources provided names of almost 650 detainees. Detentions of peaceful protesters on the Moscow boulevards continued on May 7 and May 8.

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09
May 2012

Putin Signs Decree Seeking Closer U.S. Ties, ‘Firm Guarantees’ On Missile Shield

Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty

May 07, 2012

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree stating that Moscow will seek closer ties with Washington, but will not tolerate interference in its affairs.

The document, signed on May 7, hours after Putin was sworn in for a third term as president, also says that Moscow wants “firm guarantees” that a planned U.S.-led NATO missile shield is not aimed against Russia.

It says Moscow aims to bring cooperation with Washington “to a truly strategic level” but relations must be based on equality and mutual respect.

The decree serves to send a message to U.S. President Barack Obama ahead of a meeting between the leaders later this month at G8 and NATO summits in the United States.

Washington maintains that the missile shield, which is due to be completed by about 2020, is meant to counter a potential threat from rogue states, including Iran. Russia says the system could gain the capability to intercept Russian missiles by about 2018. 

Russia’s Chief of General Staff Nikolai Makarov on May 3 repeated warnings that Russia might opt to station short-range missiles in its Kaliningrad exclave to counter the shield.

He was also quoted as saying that Russia may consider a preemptive strike on the system in Europe if the project continues as planned.

U.S. State Department  responded by insisting that the shield would not alter the strategic balance between the countries.

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08
May 2012

Spring Will Come to Russia

The New York Times. The Opinion Pages.

By GUY VERHOFSTADT

Published: May 8, 2012

But this time Putin faces a different domestic political climate. Even he cannot prevent the arrival of a Russian Spring if reform is permanently stifled. The West must also be ready and willing to play its part in pressing for change.The inauguration of Vladimir Putin on Monday for a third term as president of Russia represents the culmination of the Kremlin’s “managed democracy,” under which the political process remains arbitrary but the outcome is pre-determined.

The day after the March 4 presidential election, officials in European capitals and in Washington busied themselves drafting congratulations for Putin, while tens of thousands of people stood in Pushkin Square in Moscow demanding their rights.

I was there as Russian people called for new, free and fair elections and the registration of political parties currently outlawed by the regime. I was there as Russian people called for justice in the cases of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and the late Sergei Magnitsky and Anna Politkovskaya. I was there when Russian people were bused in and generously rewarded for attending the political farce of a pro-Putin election rally.

In the aftermath of the biggest demonstrations in the history of modern Russia, outgoing President Dmitri Medvedev committed himself to political reforms, revision of electoral laws, greater political freedoms and direct elections of regional governors.

What could have been a legacy of the Medvedev presidency turned out to be futile. Putin has ruled out the possibility of holding new free and fair elections; limits have been placed on gubernatorial elections, and electoral bloc building has been banned. What was sold as a package of political reforms was in fact a further tightening of the screws on political opposition.

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08
May 2012

Medvedev the Phony

Foreign Policy

The Russian political circus has extended its tour. Four years ago, Dmitry Medvedev was chosen to keep warm the seat of Vladimir Putin, and now as Putin returns to the presidency, Medvedev will assume the post of prime minister. This job swap, announced last September, might have been accepted by most Russians without a murmur several years ago, but Russia has changed dramatically since then. The swap instead has deepened resentment among many in the country, who view it as a slap in the face. In December, hundreds of thousands of Russians took to the streets against the rigged election, which in their eyes made Putin’s presidency illegitimate.

But where does this leave Medvedev? “Who?” some might ask dismissively. “Putin’s puppet?” others might sneer. To many Russians, the outgoing president is viewed as a nonentity whose primary concrete legacy will be the absurd reduction of Russia’s time zones from 11 to 9. During his putative presidency, the Russian system displayed unmistakable signs of decay, demonstrated by the growing role of repressive organs and their criminalization, the fusion of power with property, and the ruling elites’ attempts to pass their wealth and positions to their families and friends. Medvedev would often utter liberal-sounding ideas — his anodyne comment that “freedom is better than non-freedom” caused quite a flutter of excitement, briefly — but the follow-through on his proposals was never there. He had the power only to speak, not act. The more he tried to be taken seriously, the more comical and pathetic he looked. Often, Putin would be caught by cameras looking at his protégé with condescending amusement.

Why, then, would Putin keep Medvedev on as prime minister? Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, or nearly any other high-level official, would arguably be a more effective choice. But effectiveness isn’t Putin’s goal. Instead, his criteria are based on loyalty, keeping a corrupt architecture intact, and eliminating potential threats. This is how the personalized system in Russia works: By stepping aside and not running for reelection, Medvedev has demonstrated his loyalty to Putin, and in turn, Putin has shown that he rewards loyalty. The only silver lining of Putin’s return to power may be how it reveals Medvedev’s supposedly reformist presidency for the farce it really was.

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